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Future health: an introduction to the online debate (This discussion is now closed.)

In a fast-changing world of diverse cultures and vastly differing resources and capacity, what is the future of health? In 20 years’ time, priorities for prevention and medical care may look very different from 2010.

C3 has developed some key themes on this issue, provoked by ‘scenario planning’ by futurists. In 2030, what health challenges – particularly around obesity and chronic diseases such as diabetes – will be faced by developed and developing countries? How can they best be planned for, starting now? How will they be dealt with by individuals, societies and governments?

C3’s aim is to provoke an online discussion – among academics, business people, insurers, patients, young people, and all those who have a stake in the future of health – focusing particularly on four deliberately contentious themes, identified by C3 as being particular touchstones for debate.

The themes and debate were reported on and discussed at the Oxford Health Alliance Summit in New Delhi in April.

Theme 1: Healthy living

Theme 1: Healthy living

Can we be optimistic about the future ability of public-health interventions to control obesity and prevent chronic diseases?

Theme 2: Weight-loss surgery

Theme 2: Weight-loss surgery

How will the relative effectiveness of different kinds of interventions dictate how obesity and chronic diseases are controlled and prevented – and is weight-loss surgery really a silver bullet?

Theme 3: Universal integrated care

Theme 3: Universal integrated care

Is it possible to expand the few good-practice examples where care for people with chronic conditions can be provided better by crossing the traditional divide between hospital and community services to have much wider application and impact?

Theme 4: Low-cost innovation

Theme 4: Low-cost innovation

Where will the innovations emerge in chronic disease prevention and care, particularly for developing countries?


Foresight (UK Government): Tackling Obesities [link]

Institute for Alternative Futures: Foresight for Smart Globalization, Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities [link]

Institute for the Future: Health Horizons [link]

NHS Sustainability Development Unit: Fit for the Future [link]

Novo Nordisk: Diabetes towards 2030 [link]

The Millennium Project: State of the Future [link]

World Economic Forum: Future of Pensions and Healthcare, Scenarios to 2030 [link]

Theme 4: Low-cost innovation